NADA says growing new truck orders and used truck sales volume have been growing on parallel planes over recent months, and relaxed depreciation of the wholesale and retail used truck market at the end of 2016 has now carried over into the first months of 2017. The result is an industry that suggests a “stabilizing market,” NADA reports.
In the wholesale market, NADA reports MY 2011 to 2013 sleeper trailers in the auction and wholesale markets totaled $34,091, $23,605 and $26,634, respectively, in February. The 2011 and 2013 numbers were higher than January rates while the 2012 number was down by 15.5 percent. NADA attributes the fluctuations to lower volume moved in February.
“Figures do support word of mouth that price declines are leveling out and demand is picking up,” NADA reports. “Price improvements will be limited due to the substantial potential returning supply of trucks over the next two to three years, but we remain cautiously optimistic about market conditions in 2017.”
Additionally, NADA says its monthly depreciation forecast for these same trucks trended up last month. NADA is now expecting a monthly depreciation rate of 1.5 to 2 percent in 2017.
In the retail market, NADA says 3- to 5-year old sleeper tractors started 2017 at lower positions than the previous year. But if February’s auction and wholesale data is any indication, the market should withstand these early lows and begin moving in a more positive direction in the near future.
“Since retail pricing trends generally lag auction pricing trends by a few months, we expect trucks to lose less of their value each month going forward. Incoming used truck supply will continue to counter any increase in demand, but dealers who have weathered the storm of the past year and a half should see somewhat brighter days ahead,” NADA says.
In forecasting the days to come, NADA says, “The potential returning supply of 3- to 5-year-old trucks is an unavoidable factor that will limit the magnitude of pricing improvements until at least 2019. Volume of trucks returned to the market this year should be similar to last, and then we can expect an increase in 2018 and 2019. However, demand should improve this year, which should make 2017 a better year than 2016.”
