J.D. Power reports volume of 4- to 7-year-old trucks sold at auction decreased notably in January, as is typical for that month. Pricing was mixed, with newer trucks showing the most downward movement. J.D. Power notes it now considers a model-year 2017 truck 4 years old.
Additionally, while early February auction data doesn’t suggest much change in pricing, J.D. Power says “we should be nearing the end of the worst of the devaluation.”
Average auction pricing for January was as follows:
- Model year 2017: Not enough data
- Model year 2016: $29,666 average; $2,615 (9.7 percent) higher than December
- Model year 2015: $20,500 average; $3,197 (13.5 percent) lower than December
- Model year 2014: $20,250 average; $847 (4.5 percent) lower than December
- Model year 2013: $13,000 average; $2,954 (18.5 percent) lower than December
- Model year 2012: $12,975 average; $584 (4.3 percent) lower than December
In the retail space, pricing was unimpressive, which J.D. Power states is normal for the first month in a new year. The mix of trucks sold trended to higher mileage, with models that typically bring less money comprising a good portion of our data. Regardless of these factors, an apples-to-apples comparison of any given truck puts January lower than December, the company says.
The average sleeper tractor retailed in January was 70 months old, had 468,378 miles, and brought $46,459. Compared to December, J.D. Power says the average sleeper was 1 month newer, had 12,682 (2.6 percent) fewer miles, and brought $1,549 (1.8 percent) more money. Compared to January 2019, this average sleeper was identical in age, had 1,229 (0.3 percent) more miles, and brought $9,938 (17.6 percent) less money.
- Model year 2019: $109,345; $5,187 (4.5 percent) lower than December
- Model year 2018: $88,184; $4,041 (4.4 percent) lower than December
- Model year 2017: $63,322; $8,619 (12.0 percent) lower than December
- Model year 2016: $50,057; $6,017 (10.7 percent) lower than December
“Year-over-year, late-model trucks sold in January 2020 brought an average of 13.5 percent less money than January 2019,” J.D. Power indicates. “Month-over-month comparisons will return next month. Pricing is still similar to the last market bottom in 2016.”
One bit of good news was sales per rooftop, which ticked up to 3.6 trucks. J.D. Power calls the number “mildly encouraging in a month that typically sees low volume.”
Looking ahead in the retail space, the company says there will likely be fewer trade returns this year compared to last, but these trucks will enter a market already oversaturated. “Assuming general economic conditions remain roughly consistent, we expect depreciation to relax in the spring, with the supply/demand relationship looking best in the summer,” J.D. Power says. “Then in the months leading up to the presidential election, depreciation should accelerate moderately as it usually does in the fall of an election year.”
The story in the medium-duty space was a little better in January when compared to its heavy truck counterparts.
January’s average price for Class 3-4 was $14,319, $4,537 (14.0 percent) lower than January 2019, and $1,879 (15.1 percent) higher than December 2019. Class 4 conventional pricing for 4-7 year-old trucks in January was similar year-over-year. Average pricing for J.D. Power’s benchmark group was $24,855, $406 (1.6 percent) lower than January 2019. Class 6 conventional pricing was very similar year over year as well as month over month. In January, the group averaged $21,853, $402 (1.9 percent) higher than December, and $394 (1.8 percent) higher than January 2019.
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