ACT Research dropped its expectations for heavy-duty and vocational trucks yet again.
"This is the time of year that heavy truck orders are weak," says Kenny Vieth, ACT's president and senior analyst. "That seasonal weakness has been compounded by the aftershocks of April's tariff and policy announcements, which continue to reverberate. Policy uncertainty, coupled with still weak for-hire rates and profitability fundamentals, have exacerbated that seasonal order weakness."
Despite order weakness, tractor sales are holding steady, rising even since the onset of tariffs, as companies seek to take advantage of inventory already on lots and, therefore, not exposed to tariffs. As that inventory is consumed, retail sales are expected to cool.
"Using June data, tractor order trends for the past 12 months, six months [seasonally adjusted annual rate] and three month [seasonally adjusted annual rate] are 176,000; 129,000; and 97,000, respectively," Vieth says. "Much like the tractor market, vocational orders continue to trend lower, with the 12 month, six month [seasonally adjusted annual rate] and three-month [seasonally adjusted annual rate] order levels at 86,000; 60,000; and 54,000 units, respectively."
