New commercial truck sales totaled 231,743 units through the second quarter of 2024, down 8% year over year, the American Truck Dealers (ATD) announced Wednesday in its most recent Truck Beat report.
ATD Chief Economist Patrick Manzi states Class 8 truck sales were the primary driver of the decline in the overall market.
Halfway through 2024, Class 8 truck sales totaled 136,096, a decline of 16.6% compared to the first half of 2023. ATD says Class 8 truck sales have declined year over year for 11 straight months. Medium-duty truck sales, however, posted a 2.0% gain year over year through the second quarter with only Class 6 sales posting a year-over-year decline.
ATD also states Class 8 truck orders declined at the end of the second quarter. According to ACT Research, preliminary estimates of orders for new Class 8 trucks in June 2024 totaled 14,800 units, down 12% year over year and 37% from May 2024. Class 8 truck orders were stronger at the start of the year but have declined in recent months. Orders for Class 5-7 trucks totaled an estimated 19,000 units in June 2024, down 1.6% compared to May 2024, but up by 3.3% year over year.
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On a marketshare basis, the first half of the year was strongest for Peterbilt in the Class 8 space and Ford in the medium-duty sector. Peterbilt earned 16.4% of new Class 8 marketshare in January through June, up 2.6% year to date. Western Star (1.9), Kenworth (1.8%), Volvo (0.6%) and Mack (0.4%) also earned share while Freightliner (down 3.2% to 36.0% overall) and International (down 4.2% to 9.9% overall) lost share year to date.
Ford was up 2.4% year to date in the Classes 4-7 space, rising to 31.1% overall. Freightliner remained in second place in those classes at 18.9% but was down 6.0% year to date.
The used truck market also continues to struggle as pricing has cooled significantly the past two years as new truck production recovered. According to ACT Research, the average retail price for a used Class 8 truck in May 2024 was $58,400, a decline of 15% year over year. ACT’s team expects used truck pricing to be stable through the fall.
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Manzi writes in ATD's last market update it was expected that the Federal Reserve would make its first rate cut in June, but June passed and the Fed chose to hold rates steady — given the strength of the labor market and broader economy and inflation readings coming in higher than expected in the months leading up to the meeting.
"A cut at the July meeting is unlikely and we expect the first rate cut of the current cycle to come in one of the final three meetings of year. Any relief on borrowing costs would be helpful to new truck buyers. Looking out to the end of 2024, we expect that medium-duty sales will increase compared to 2023 to roughly 252,000 units and that heavy-duty truck sales will decline to around 225,000 units."
