After the strong end to 2024, with Class 8 orders booked at a 357,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in the quarter. But that market strength is now gone.
ACT Research reported Thursday in its most recent North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report that the past two months have largely been defined by trade and economic policy uncertainty, which have thrown a wrench into business planning.
“Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity, a response to the newfound uncertainty, or both remains an open question,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. “Preliminary Class 8 orders dropped 34% year over year to 18,300 units in February. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 28% from January to 16,700 units, and a 200,000 unit SAAR — the lowest seasonally adjusted Class 8 order volume in nearly two years.”
Vieth adds with the tractor market already at a low ebb, “tariffs are starting to weigh on business decision making, reducing early-in-the-year economic expectations. In addition to uncertainty leading to corporate indecision, the apparent policy path is likely to weigh on key U.S. Class 8 market indicators including freight volumes and by extension, freight rates, consumer spending and sentiment.”
Vieth says it appears now that in addition to possibly seeing some production moved back to the U.S., the trucking industry also is likely racing to add as much inventory as they can before tariffs are fully enacted.
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“Hence, while we cut our forecasts and lower 2025 expectations, tariffs and the threat of more to come are actually boosting activity in the near term. As is always the case with pulling activity forward, there are paybacks,” he says.
