The bottom is starting to fall out of Class 8 truck orders.
ACT Research and FTR Intelligence reported preliminary Class 8 truck orders of 16,000 and 15,700 units, respectively, in March, deepening the market downswing that began in January.
FTR says its estimate was down 14% from February and 22% year over year. ACT Research says its total is down 8.3% from 2024. FTR adds its March total is significantly below the seven-year March average of 24,760 net orders and represents a slightly larger-than-expected seasonal month-over-month decline.
The company says the vocational market accounted for the bulk of the month-over-month declines, although on-highway orders were predominantly weaker as well. Class 8 orders for the past 12 months totaled 277,927 units, the company says.
“The first quarter of 2025 has been defined by one word — uncertainty,” says Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Whether the slowdown in orders is a result of moderating economic activity, private fleets’ pausing expansion or a response to trade and policy uncertainty is difficult to surmise and remains an open question.”
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FTR also references industry uncertainly as the likely reason for the slowdown.
The implementation and continued threat of tariffs among North American trading partners combined with ongoing economic and freight market uncertainty have significantly dampened fleet investment in Class 8 trucks and tractors in recent months, the company says. This situation is further complicated by anticipated revisions to the U.S. EPA’s 2027 NOx regulations.
“Persistent uncertainty in tariffs, the economy, freight, and regulations could notably disrupt fleet replacement cycles — potentially prompting fleets to either accelerate purchases ahead of expected price hikes or, more likely, delay investments until market conditions stabilize,” says Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst for commercial vehicles. “The latter scenario appears supported by the 25% year-over-year decline in net orders for 2025 to date. Cumulative net orders for the 2025 order season (September 2024 through March 2025) were down by 8% year over year as well.”
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On that note, Vieth adds that while seasonally adjusted orders increased 1.1% from February to 198,000 units, that total is “one of the lowest 1-month SAAR readings in almost three years.”
The firms also note the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announced Wednesday are unlikely to reverse the market's current downturn, at least in the short- and medium-term.
“New and pending U.S. tariffs and retaliatory tariffs are expected to significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks, tractors, and related components. OEMs and suppliers may consider shifting production to mitigate tariff exposure, but such strategic adjustments are costly, complex and time-consuming, further complicating industry planning,” says Moyer.
The medium-duty market didn't avoid March's downswing either. Vieth says Classes 5-7 orders were down 33% year over year in March at 18,600 units.
