Class 8 truck orders suffered their seventh consecutive year-over-year monthly decrease in July but did tick up slightly from June, FTR and ACT Research reported Monday.
FTR preliminary orders for July were 12,700 units; ACT Research’s estimate was slightly higher at 13,200 units and seasonally adjusts to 17,700 units. FTR states its total is 7% below 2024 levels but up 42% from the 16-year-low seen in June. ACT’s preliminary total is 2% below its 2024 data.
FTR adds orders remained notably below July’s 10-year average of 19,974 units, underscoring persistent caution among fleets amid trade tensions, fluctuating tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty impacting freight demand.
“Ongoing tariff volatility and broader economic and truck freight market sluggishness continue to negatively impact the Class 8 market, driving a substantial 30% year-over-year decline in year-to-date net orders,” says Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “Class 8 market uncertainty is further elevated due to the potential imposition of Section 232 tariffs specifically targeting Class 4-8 trucks, tractors and related components.”
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Segment volatility could be seen in July orders as well. FTR reports the vocational and on-highway segments improved month over month in July but the latter was still historically soft, and drove the year-over-year decline. The company states the order levels highlight the particular vulnerability among carriers focused on longer-haul operations.
ACT Research offers a similar market assessment.
“While the economy continues to grow, expanding 3.0% quarter over quarter in Q2, uncertainty, elevated equipment prices and emerging signs of economic softness are all weighing on commercial vehicle demand,” says Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Solid freight generating segments like housing and manufacturing are sluggish, with manufacturers shedding labor the past three months. Consumers continue to spend, but tariff-related price increases and a weakening labor market may weigh on goods spending in the near term.”
For the 2025 order cycle (Sept. 2024 to July 2025), FTR reports total orders are down 15% year over year. Orders have totaled 254,349 units over the last 12 months.
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Moyer also points to regulatory uncertainty as another possible thorn in the side of truck demand. He states the lack of clarity regarding potential EPA revisions (or revocations) is challenging equipment decision makers.
“As a result, many fleets are delaying commercial vehicle equipment investments,” he says. “Meanwhile, continued record-high inventory levels are placing additional downward pressure on Class 8 production.”
Finally, the Classes 5-7 market mostly mirrored the Class 8 sector in July. ACT reports preliminary orders in those classes at 13,000 units, down 17% year over year but seasonally adjusted to 15,400 units.
