A new month didn’t turn around the North American Class 8 new truck market in November.
FTR and ACT Research on Tuesday reported their preliminary net orders in November for the Class 8 space and both reported the market contracted once again.
FTR stated orders were were down more than seasonally expected, falling 17% from October and 44% against November 2024 to 20,200 units. ACT stated Class 8 orders were down 47% year over year at 19,700 units, with combined Class 5-8 orders at 36,000 units and down 33% against 2024.
FTR adds its total is well below the 10-year November average of 28,910 units, with orders now totaling just 214,797 units over the last 12 months.
[RELATED: EPA plans ‘major changes’ but no delay to NOx rule]
The soft month also exists in contrast to modest improvements in tariff and regulatory clarity in recent weeks, as FTR notes fleets continue to defer replacement and expansion plans amid weak freight demand, persistent excess capacity and many other challenges.
“So far, improved clarity has not been enough to offset a host of challenges — weak freight fundamentals, limited carrier profitability, elevated capital costs and so on — that continue to keep fleets on the sidelines,” says Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “Fleets are emphasizing cost control, maintenance discipline, and asset utilization over growth, delaying any meaningful rebound in equipment demand until economic and market conditions firm.”
“Despite last month’s announcement regarding EPA 2027 adding much needed clarity for the market, the obvious bottleneck to stronger order activity is lack of carrier profitability,” adds Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Spot rates continue to tread along the bottom, and while supply is coming out of the market, demand in key freight sectors is lagging.”
In November’s orders, FTR states both the vocational and on-highway segments posted month-over-month and year-over-year decline, though vocational did outperform on-highway on a year-over-year basis, reflecting continued, but cautious, demand heading into 2026.
As such, the company states concerns are rising for the 2026 order cycle. Cumulative net orders from September through November were down a striking 36% year over year, FTR says, and while the aforementioned clarity around EPA 2027 and a more targeted tariff strategy helps, the market remains precarious.
[RELATED: Domestic trailer OEMs file antidumping, countervailing petition against importers]
Good news could come through measured tariff price increases that support reshoring while avoiding significant short-term disruptions to Class 8 sourcing and production, as could the expected elimination of the extended warranty requirements in the NOx. FTR believes that will reduce new truck costs substantially — perhaps by around half of the expected increase previously, according to some estimates.
“For truck manufacturers and suppliers, forward visibility remains limited, and order activity is likely to remain uneven until freight volumes and rates show a sustained recovery,” says Moyer.
In the medium-duty space, Vieth notes preliminary reporting shows November Classes 5-7 orders down 2.9% year over year to 16,300 units.
Vieth says medium-duty “continues to be impacted by small businesses getting crushed by tariffs, uncertainty and levels of consumer pessimism typically reserved for recessions.”
