Improved rates and regulatory visibility are fueling higher Class 8 order activity, ACT Research says in its latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook.
"The improvement in tractor order activity starting in December 2025 boils down to improved spot and contract rates and regulatory clarity," says Ken Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. "Despite fuel headwinds, with WTI oil largely trading at our above $90 a barrel since the beginning of the war, spot rate gains have remained sticky. In our view, a rapidly tightening driver supply that accelerated in January has helped shield spot rates from rising costs, with aggregate spot rates rising 25% year over year at the end of April."
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Vieth says the company's survey of mid- to large-sized fleets indicated the ability to find drivers in March is the hardest it's been since 2021, impacted by state actions such as states revoking nondomicile CDLs. Clarity on regulations regarding higher equipment costs is also spurring order activity.
"The higher cost estimates would certainly add greater incentive to dealers and large fleets to find the budget for equipment now rather than later," Vieth says.
Vocational heavy duty trucks seem to be continuing to ride the data center wave, he says, as well as also benefitting from EPA '27 clarity.
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"With the four biggest technology companies in the U.S. set to deploy $650 billion in capital toward data centers and associated AI buildout needs in 2026, the vocational market appears poised to continue benefitting from strong secular tailwinds that show little sign of slowing in the short term," Vieth says.
