Class 8 truck orders fell month over month in April but remain well ahead of historical norms as the market shows continued strength.
ACT Research on Monday reported April preliminary Class 8 orders of 24,800 units, up 201% from April 2025. FTR’s estimate was even stronger, reporting Tuesday orders of 25,500 units, up 199% against its 2025 measurement. FTR says April was the third straight month of better than 140% year-over-year growth, and states Class 8 orders over the last 12 months have totaled 298,105 units.
“With April signifying the beginning of weak order seasonality until 2027 order boards open in September, it’s little surprise that preliminary April Class 8 order activity fell from March levels,” says Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research.
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FTR also attributes the month-over-month reduction to seasonality following March’s elevated level rather than a loss of momentum. The company states orders for 2026 to date are now up 110% year over year, pushing the cumulative 2026 order season growth up to 23% year over year.
FTR believes demand is being supported by firmer freight rates, tighter capacity, higher utilization, replacement needs, possibly some limited fleet growth among better-positioned carriers and fleets securing remaining 2026 build slots as part of a moderate EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy to avoid higher equipment costs. However, weak retail truck sales and varied carrier profitability suggest that the recovery is still uneven, the company says.
Looking ahead, FTR estimates 2026 order boards will likely fill earlier than normal as orders are likely to remain significantly elevated year over year until remaining build slots are sold out in the coming months. Public comments from OEMs already suggest build availability is tightening, the company reports, with Q2 slots full at some manufacturers and much of second-half 2026 capacity already spoken for.
“The abrupt shift in demand in recent months has brought some risks as we have noted previously,” says Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR. “One risk is that fleets will act out of ‘fear of missing out,’ or FOMO, to order earlier or in larger quantities than needed to avoid being shut out of 2026 production, thus raising cancellation risks. We still believe that risk is limited unless freight recovery stalls.
He also notes the more notable risk from elevated orders is build execution. “Demand is very strong, but OEMs and suppliers must now ramp production from a low Q1 base without creating labor, supply chain, quality or inventory issues,” Moyer says.
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Other risks remain too, Moyer says, and he cautions the industry from presuming guaranteed demand through the rest of the year. He cites uncertainties over regulatory policy and the durability of the freight recovery, elevated financing costs and geopolitical developments as factors that could keep fuel prices elevated and slow investment.
“Overall, April orders reinforce the main message: Class 8 demand remains strong, but the focus is shifting from demand recovery to backlog quality and production execution,” Moyer says.
In the medium-duty space, Vieth says Classes 5-7 orders were up 26% year over year in April to 16,400 units. Like the Class 8 space, Vieth says the positive year-over-year shift is due to easy comps — April 2025 was filled with tariff announcements and reduced demand.
“Concerns about the K-shaped economy will impact medium-duty more than heavy-duty, as less wealthy households cut back on the services supported by medium-duty trucks,” he says.
