FTR Transportation Intelligence says U.S. net trailer orders rose 86% month over month in December. However, that's still down 4% year over year and, at 24,282 units, below the 10-year December average of 33,623 units.
"The U.S. trailer market is increasingly constrained by policy-driven cost inflation and trade uncertainty, which are now the primary forces shaping pricing and demand," says Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR.
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Dry van led the month over month rebound, reflecting factors such as deferred orders from September through November, efforts to get ahead of potential tariff-related cost pass-throughs, and antidumping and countervailing duty investigations into trailers imported from Canada, China and Mexico. Fleets finally making capital expenditure decisions after more clarity regarding EPA 2027 emissions regulations were also a factor.
"Section 232 on tariffs on steel, aluminum and downstream products, including heavy-duty cargo trailers and key components, have established a durable higher-cost base with little prospect of near-term relief," Moyer says. "The potential for higher van trailer costs due to the antidumping investigation also might already be influencing sourcing and pricing decisions."
FTR says it's too early to say a demand recovery is under way. That is unlikely to happen until a more durable, growth-oriented ordering environment emerges and fleet profitability improves.
"Overall, entrenched tariffs and unresolved trade actions are likely to keep demand cautious and costs elevated, reinforcing selective purchasing and a stronger focus on total cost of ownership," Moyer says.
For the full year of 2025, U.S. net trailer orders totaled 173,144 units, up 5% year over year. For the 2026 order season, however, orders declined 20% year over year despite December's improvement.
U.S. trailer production fell even more in December to its lowest level since September 2010. Total build declined 13% month over month and 6% year over year to 11,801 units. For the first time since March 2025, orders exceeded production, lifting backlogs 16% month over month to 84,501. Year over year, however, backlogs are down 21%, highlighting the subdued order environment. Backlog-to-build ratios improved to 7.2 months.
