ACT Research says trailer market challenges from 2025 are persisting into 2026.
"Cancellations gyrated wildly throughout 2025, before returning to a more subdued rate to start 2026," says Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT Research. "February's rate of 0.5% as a percentage of backlog, fell well below the target range for the first time in 13 months, following an improved but still-elevated 1.6% reading in January."
McNealy says data continued to show elevated cancellations in the tank segments as oil and gas activity declined.
"However, if high oil prices continue, tank trailer cancellations are unlikely to continue at elevated levels," she says.
Backlogs are down 1.5% sequentially, or by about 1,100 units after two months of net orders outpacing build. But, as McNealy says, "the tide receded in February."
"Given the annual order cycle is coming to an end, and it's now typically the time to build down the backlog, the question remains truckers' near-term appetite for trailers," she says. "Much like 2025, the issue today remains a shallow backlog."
The industry is also facing soft demand, financing concerns, tariffs known and unknown, weak carrier profits, low freight volumes, and low levels of capital spending knocking against high input costs, especially from metals.
"Those on the front lines are waiting, knowing a ramp in demand is coming but worried about the industry's ability to meet it if it is too steep and quick," McNealy says.
