This week we talk the economy and its impact on parts and service demand, illuminated in great detail by MacKay & Company during the recent MEMA Pulse webinar. We also cover July market conditions, which included a downswing in truck tonnage, surprisingly strong trailer orders and softer used truck pricing. We highlight Acme Truck Brake & Supply, a finalist for our Distributor of the Year Award, tease upcoming stories about our truck and trailer dealer award finalists and remind truck dealers to register for ATD Show 2027 and nominate colleagues for that event’s Truck Dealer of the Year Award.
Lucas: Hey, everyone. Lucas here for today’s TPS weekly news roundup. I’ll begin today with Tuesday’s MEMA Pulse webinar.
If you didn’t get the chance to listen in on that or check out our story, MEMA welcomed Dr. Bob Dieli and Dave Kalvelage from MacKay & Company to talk about the aftermarket and the economy for 2026. Kind of a mixed message there. Dr. Bob sees some real headwinds. He mentions fuel prices. He says the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who has a sort of a different policy and some sort of some different goals for the Fed compared to what we’ve seen from the prior administrations. Then also trade and tariffs. We don’t really know what’s going happen with USMCA. We don’t really know what President Trump’s going to do about tariffs. There were supposed to be Canadian tariffs this week. They were slightly delayed. But there’s some sort of macroeconomic headwinds for the economy, which is limiting the opportunity for the freight market recovery.
On the aftermarket side, as it relates to trucking. The MacKay team is somewhat bullish. Dave says MacKay has upgraded its forecast for 2026 for the aftermarket from 3.9% growth to 4.8% growth, now predicting the U.S. aftermarket at $57.7 billion this year, and a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% for 2027 to 2031. Obviously, if freight was stronger, that number would be higher. Obviously, if the economy was a little bit more stable, that number would be higher. But still good to see some positivity there.
As it relates to the trucking economy, as it relates to freight, ATA reported its truck tonnage totals for July this month. They said July was down about 1%, but they revised their June estimate from up 0.1% to up 1.5%. So, choppy situation right now for freight. We had a really good Q1 into Q2. Things are kind of mixed right now, but better than they’ve been for the last couple years. We’re definitely out of the freight recession.
Some other news. Trailer orders in July. Trailer orders were up about 2,500 to 3,000 units. June was more of a seasonally anticipated number. July jumped up to about 16,000 units, according to FTR and ACT Research. We’re not 100% sure what happened there. There’s a possibility that carriers that wanted to purchase trucks realized there were no order board slots available, no build slots available. They decided to maybe push that investment for trucks into September and maybe ordered some trailers right now. There [also] might be some replacement demand. Carriers that have needed to order trailers for a long time, deciding that freight is strong enough that they’re willing to make that investment. But trailer orders were better, so you can check out those stories on the website.
In the used truck market, retail and wholesale pricing were down just a little bit, but they were down in July. In the auction space, pricing was up, but volumes were down substantially. So, it makes sense if there’s fewer trucks to sell in the auction sector, they might do a little bit better. J.D. Power also saying it anticipates some downward pressure on used truck pricing as we get into Q4 and into 2027, because new truck orders have been so strong for the last year, and we are going to begin to see the influx in trades as new truck orders are delivered. So, keep an eye on that. If you’re a used truck dealer, you can check that story out on the website as well.
And then a couple other things. We posted a questionnaire with Acme Truck Brake & Supply. They are one of our finalists for Distributor of the Year Award, a first-time finalist. You can learn more about them. You can check out their story from Wednesday.
ATD announced it has opened registration for ATD Show 2027. And I sent an email out to truck dealers announcing that you can begin making nominations for the ATD Truck Dealer of the Year. You can check that out on the website if you haven’t found it. We’ll be accepting nominations through the end of September.
Next week the TPS team will be covering MEMA’s Commercial Vehicle Outlook Conference, so look for some stories from that Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. The event is Wednesday, and we’ll have stories really throughout the latter half of the week. We’ll have another Distributor of the Year questionnaire. Successful Dealer and Trailblazer profiles will begin probably the end of August or the first part of September, but keep an eye out for those.
Have a great rest of your day. Have a great weekend. We'll see you next week. Thanks, everybody. Bye.
