FTR pegged December 2016 at 21,200 units, up 10 percent month-over-month, and spot on the FTR forecast. The company says the solid December order activity is very consistent with the order demand of the last two months.
ACT Research had 21,400 units for the month, and Class 5-7 orders at 20,600 units. Those numbers brought the full-year tally to 415,000 units, ACT reported.
Looking back at heavy-duty orders, FTR says that discounting October’s cancellations, Q4 month-to-month orders were extremely stable. The company says Class 8 backlogs should rise significantly in December, giving the market some modest momentum starting off 2017.
“Production was weak in December, but based on the Q4 orders, it should begin a modest recovery in February,” says Don Ake, vice president of Commercial Vehicles at FTR. “The most recent economic news has been positive, so freight demand should keep orders propped up for a few more months. 2017 still looks to be a tough year, but now backlogs are growing and that means the worst should be behind us for now.”
ACT Research President and Senior Analyst Kenny Vieth adds, “December was the only month in 2016 in which orders rose above 20,000 units. However, after the streak of negative year-over-year order comparisons was snapped in November at 22-months, the year-over-year comparison turned negative again, with orders falling 24 percent from last December.”
FTR says Class 8 net orders were only 164,000 in 2016.
Vieth says the medium-duty numbers look much stronger when compared to past results.
“As December is historically the second strongest order month of the year, seasonal adjustment reduces the month’s orders to 19,000 units,” he says. “For all of 2016, MD orders of 228,500 units were a virtual carbon-copy of 2015’s net order intake, giving up 1.1 percent compared to 2015.”
