TPS readers predict ‘alternative’ market share

Among Trucks, Parts, Service readers, hydrogen edges out hybrid electric as the alternative option most likely to pull market share from diesel in the commercial truck market.

More than a third of all responders (36%) and nearly half of dealer responders (47%) to an April 2023 TPS reader survey selected hydrogen as the most viable alternative power or fuel source to diesel in the medium- and heavy-duty markets. Battery electric trucks were viewed as a top option by only 6% of responders, though hybrid (battery electric with a fuel source) was viewed as a top choice by 34% of responses. 

Yet despite responders’ affinity toward hydrogen, most early investment into supporting alternative power solutions has been for electric and hybrid electric vehicles. Among dealer responders, 28% have already delivered at least one electric vehicle and 83% of dealers said they intend to sell EVs in the future. Additionally, 54% of dealers have already invested EV charging and service infrastructure.

To what scale will the EV market grow? Survey responders’ thoughts are mixed. Just 7% of responders believe EVs will represent at least 25% of new truck sales by 2030, but 55% believe they will earn that market share at a later date (28% saying that adoption will come between 2030 and 2040; 27% saying it will come after 2040).

Keep up with our special report on trucking's transition to cleaner trucks:

Part I: This isn't trucking's first fueling and propulsion revolution

Part II: Why are we doing this?

Part III: What constitutes as ‘alternative power’?

Part IV: What will drive — or inhibit — alternative power adoption?

Part V: Performing an alternative power market analysis

Part VI: What it takes to install charging infrastructure

Part VII: Training on alternative powertrains vital to employee safety, business success

Part VIII: The challenges of building your best EV service bay

Part IX: Making the case: How to effectively sell alternative power

Part X: Safety in the Service Bay

Part XI: How electric trucks may transform dealer revenue streams