ACT Research reported Tuesday its medium- and heavy-duty truck forecast for 2025 shifted down sharply this month, even as 2024 forecasts push higher.
ACT says the biggest driver of Classes 5-7 and Class 8 forecast changes are driven by excessively strong build relative to retail sales that have led to sharp inventory gains. ACT reported the analysis in its most recent North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook.
"The forecast changes are driven by across-the-board stagnant, and in some cases worsening, fundamentals," says Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. "At calculated levels, Classes 5-7 and Class 8 inventories are at record levels. Industry backlogs are increasingly consumed. Private fleets have taken around 6% market share from for-hire carriers since early 2023, leaving the fore-hire market swimming in capacity despite rising freight volumes.
[RELATED: Class 8 truck orders dipped in July]
"For-hire carrier profitability remained at generationally low levels in Q2 2024. And, among other factors, with elections and Fed rate cuts inbound, corporate decision making is likely to be increasingly defensive into the fall season."
ACT adds the forecast changes will be discussed in depth at ACT's Outlook Seminar, "Market Vitals: The Current & Future Health of the Industry," set for Aug. 21-22, in Columbus, Ind.
Speakers for the event include Sherry Sanger, executive vice president of strategy and marketing at Penske; Ron Long, president and CEO of Premier Truck Group; Sean Kenney, CEO of Hyundai Translead; Brad Delco, senior vice president of finance at J.B. Hunt Transport Services; Diane Hames, vice president of commercial strategy at Navistar; Shaun Skinner, president at Isuzu; Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics; and David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics.
For more information, and to register for the event, go to the ACT Research website.
