Commercial vehicle component suppliers are split on where business will go in the second half of the year but are beginning to see 2026 mostly as a growth opportunity — particularly in the OE channel, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers reported during organizational update call on its commercial vehicle operations Monday.
MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers President (and future MEMA leader) Paul McCarthy opened the call by addressing the whirlwind 2025 has been for the association as it navigates a new Congress and the trade actions of the Trump Administration.
McCarthy says the President’s efforts to evolve America’s trade policies could prove fruitful for the nation and transportation industry in the years ahead, but right now, due to the rapid speed of the President’s actions and the slower time it takes to make changes to production plants or supply chains, the commercial vehicle supplier sector must work around the clock simply to keep up with every new tariff and policy change.
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On that note, McCarthy credits not just the MEMA staff but also its member companies for the work they’ve done together to educate the administration about the impact of commercial vehicles on America’s economy and population. McCarthy says MEMA and its members have been vocal in showing the administration how “there is no economy without us,” and how every trade policy action has a downstream reaction on vehicle repairs, prices and downtime.
“Everyone has really done a fantastic job and shown what makes an association work,” McCarthy says.
And MEMA has unquestionably been working.
MEMA Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Ana Meuwissen and Senior Manager of Regulatory Policy Emily Sobel each took time Monday to summarize MEMA’s efforts to follow and influence tariff actions to minimize disruptions and maintain profitability for its members.
Meuwissen says MEMA “has responded to all pending investigations” and is particularly engaged in discussions around Section 232 tariffs, which impact the production of vehicles and vehicle parts. The duo says MEMA is regularly engaging with the Trump administration and its trade team regarding the tariffs to do everything in its power to ensure the medium- and heavy-duty truck industry remains excluded from the automobile tariffs.
Meuwissen adds MEMA also has been active in Section 232 tariff discussions around semiconductors and derivatives, while Sobel says the association also is pushing for “compliance flexibility” under the USMCA, highlighting the ”domestic capacity constraints” on production and how intwined assembly and vehicle development is across the three nations.
MEMA’s team says they believe their efforts are being well received by the administration and remain optimistic that tariff clarity — not just on Section 232 or reciprocal tariffs but all of President Trump’s actions since January — will come in the months ahead.
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Nevertheless, they also note the hectic nature of the prior months has had an impact on the short-term confidence of MEMA member companies.
Senior Director of Programming and Strategy Shannon O’Brien says MEMA’s most recent member business survey indicates a majority of suppliers are now predicting 2025 will conclude at or below 2024 in a year-over-year comparison, mostly due to economy uncertainty. On a channel basis, O’Brien says vendors are slightly more bullish for OES customers but sentiment across the two segments are fairly aligned.
Looking ahead to 2026, industry confidence around hopeful tariff certainty helps both channels, as does likely clarification around EPA regulations that could drive new truck demand. The latter is again likely a reason for increased optimism in the OES channel over the independent aftermarket, O’Brien says.
“There is growing confidence for a market rebound in 2026,” she says.
Monday’s call also briefly touched on MEMA’s efforts to engage with the EPA regarding any regulatory changes, and the re-introduction of the REPAIR Act into the U.S. House of Representatives and a companion bill in the Senate.
Meuwissen says the success MEMA and other Right to Repair supporters had with the REPAIR Act during the last Congress has been beneficial in generating interest and awareness to these new bills, both of which have bipartisan support.
She says MEMA’s team has continued to dialogue with old, new and potential supporters to drive the topic forward. She also notes a growing focus publicly on the consumer costs across the economic spectrum are helping the bills gain visibility with legislators.
“The consumer angle has become more prominent this time around,” she says.
