Preliminary North American Class 8 truck orders bounced back a bit in May as external factors alleviated some fleet purchasing concerns, FTR and ACT Research announced Tuesday.
FTR reports May orders of 12,000 units, up 40% from April’s 59-month low but still down 47% year over year. ACT’s preliminary estimate for May was slightly higher at 13,200 units. Through May, FTR says orders for the last 12 months have totaled 260,355 units.
Both firms cite trade action from Washington as reasons for the short-term order improvement but note the market still sits well below historical averages. FTR states the seven-year May average remains much higher at 18,319 units, and last month’s total is the weakest May since the early months of the pandemic.
“Tariff volatility and uncertainty over the economy and the truck freight market continue to disrupt the North American Class 8 truck and tractor market,” says Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “Legal challenges surrounding emergency tariffs (reciprocal tariffs and those related to fentanyl) and the potential introduction of Section 232 tariffs on Classes 4-8 trucks and their components adds further uncertainty to the market environment.
He adds, “Coupled with the anticipated revisions to the EPA 2027 NOx standards, these factors have led many fleets to postpone equipment investment decisions.”
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ACT’s Carter Vieth also pegs tariffs as a major reason for current order levels.
“Given the uncertainty around ‘Liberation Day’ in April’s data that sent order activity across the board to 59-month lows, it’s little surprise preliminary order activity for May showed month-over-month improvement, with total North American Classes 5-8 net orders expected at 26,400 units when released mid-month,” he says.
Vieth also adds its “worth highlighting” that continued trade uncertainty and seasonality will continue to slow order activity in the immediate months ahead, “so improvement, if any, likely won’t reveal itself until the opening of 2026 order boards in Q3 of this year.”
In the medium-duty space, Vieth adds Classes 5-7 orders came in at 13,200 units, down 32% from 2024 and the second weakest net order tally since the pandemic, only surpassed by April's weak showing.
"Seasonally adjusted, Classes 5-7 orders rose 8.5% month over month to 14,300 units, a 171,000 seasonally annual adjusted rate,” he says.
