The first State of Freight webinar of the new year looked like more of the same, but Eric Starks, chairman of FTR Transportation Intelligence, says there are “some green shoots that are happening out there.”
One of those green shoots is that investment decisions are finally being made on some fronts, including a spike in December Class 8 truck orders. But there is a caveat.
“That December was nice to see,” Eric Starks says, “but it’s doing a little bit of catch up” as carriers pull the trigger on purchases after months of uncertainty on emissions regulations and tariffs. “I’m not hanging my hat (on December).”
Avery Vise, vice president of trucking, agrees. He says December was good news, but not necessarily the sign of an inflection point. Furthermore, clarity on emissions regulations won’t translate to any kind of pre-buy as seen in previous years, Jonathan Starks, FTR’s CEO, says.
“The way we have seen it shaping up, we’re not in an overly robust demand environment,” he says, calling demand fundamentals “pretty weak.”
FTR’s experts do expect to see some improvement in 2026 for consumer spending on housing and durable goods, provided interest rates continue to march lower. Industrial investments look flat or may even see some slight growth, and manufacturing also looks to see some growth before year’s end.
Another thing that’s growing: Inflationary pressure, particularly regarding tariffs. There was a roller coaster of tariff announcements in 2025, and there’s still a little whiplash left in the global economy as effective tariff rates march steadily higher.
“Our assumption is as we get through 2026. Is that we coalesce around an effective tariff rate in the mid-teens,” Jonathan Starks says. “We’re a little bit less volatile in the second half of 2025, but we still have further tariff pressures that will build up in the system.”
The inflationary picture should start to come into focus in 2026, with uncertainty hanging on as tariff decisions work their way through the courts and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade negotiations begin anew.
“If the Supreme Court rules against the administration, we will quickly see an announcement of tariffs using another section of the trade act,” Vise says. That won’t leave time for another pull-forward like the market experienced in the first months of 2025.
Present growth in the wider economy is coming in segments that don’t contribute a lot to freight, FTR says, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals. That works out to a weak freight market, but 2026 will hold some growth if consumer spending holds. That’s good news, as Vise says trucking capacity is close to or at the bottom.
A recent seasonal spike in the freight market also will fall off, Vise says, with a significant decline in dry van and refrigerated freight, barring a weather event. He forecasts flat total truck loadings for the year, increasing toward the end of 2026. If the market beats the forecast, he says, the industry will be facing a substantially tighter market as capacity has trickled away.
“At this point, the trucking industry is trying to get to rate recovery through capacity cuts,” Vise says. “But the ability to do so is coming to an end.”
Should the market come in weaker than FTR’s forecast, he says, smaller carriers especially may start to fold.
