ACT Research's latest report shows uncertainty continues to weigh on Class 8 orders.
"On the tractor front, carrier profitability remains under pressure, inching closer to year four of the for-hire market downturn," says Ken Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. "The group of publicly traded TL carriers' aggregated margins in Q2 were near 2008 recession levels and the frontloading of goods ahead of tariffs in the first half of this year elevates the risk of a freight air pocket into the end of 2025."
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Signs of labor market weakness, paired with the fact the full force of tariffs has yet to hit U.S. consumers, mean there are more risks in the offing as orderboards open for 2026, Vieth adds.
"On the vocational side, a trio of headwinds has greatly reduced demand," Vieth says. "First, the EPA's March review announcement quickly ended vocational prebuying ahead of EPA '27, with many fleets believing that EPA '27 low NOx regulations ceased to be a future concern. On top of regulatory matters, there are funding freezes delaying infrastructure project starts despite Congress having already appropriated the funding. Lastly, deepening softness in housing and a construction pullback, solid freight generating segments, adds to vocational woes. Currently, elevated new home inventories are an added obstacle to recovery."
Vocational inventories are just off record levels, ACT says, and backlogs are at five-year lows. Production cuts have helped with backlog pressure, Vieth says, but elevated inventories remain a challenge.
