In its newest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report, ACT Research illuminates how new equipment demand continues to be buoyed by materially improved spot and contract rates, driven largely by the rapid shift in driver supply.
“Class 8 orders remained robust in June, with preliminary NA orders totaling 31,400 units, bucking typical summer seasonality and rising 231% year over year. Strong orders this month, adding to an already full Class 8 backlog, suggest either higher than expected industry builds into yearend or some orders getting pushed into [the first half of] 2027,” says Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Driving the turnaround in Class 8 order activity since December has been the ongoing supply-lead and demand-supported recovery in the trucking industry. As we often say: Truckers only buy trucks when they’re making money.”
Vieth adds that between the FMCSA’s non-domiciled driver crackdown, new carrier registration rules, ELD loophole closures, the closing of CDL mills, the Supreme Court Montgomery case ruling, an aging driver cohort and the administration’s broad immigration crackdown, the trucking industry’s driver supply is under a multi-front attack.
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Additionally, on top of the growing driver supply squeeze, the industrial rebound is boosting freight volumes. As a result, Vieth says aggregate DAT spot rates rose to above 50% year over year at the beginning of July, bolstering truckload contract rates.
The vocational market is booming too.
“The AI/utility infrastructure buildout remains red hot, with investment in the US in 2026 flowing at a rate between $12.5 — $15 billion per week. Flatbed, as evidenced by current record spot and contract rates, has been the primary beneficiary of tech’s largesse amongst trucking segments. AI/utility tailwinds are expected to carry into 2027, but political and local backlash to projects may slow growth marginally in 2027,” Vieth says.
