Highlights from the 2026 Q2 MarketPulse reader survey
- Truck and trailers dealers rated Q2 at 5.94 on our 1-10 scale, the highest quarterly score since late 2023, up from Q1's weak 5.15 rating.
- Independent aftermarket scored 6.29 in Q2 but predicts weaker Q3 conditions at 6.00, below dealer expectations.
- New equipment sales improved dramatically with only 12% of dealers citing it as weakest segment versus 40% in Q1.
The independent medium- and heavy-duty aftermarket performed better on balance against commercial truck and trailer dealers in the second quarter but it is the latter who bring the most confidence into the second half of the year, according to our most recent Trucks, Parts, Service MarketPulse quarterly survey.
Using our 1-10 scale (where 1 is the worst quarter ever and 10 is the best), truck and trailer dealers rated Q2 as a 5.94 on average. That was notably below independent aftermarket responders, who clocked a 6.29 average, but was the highest quarterly rating among dealer responders in nearly three years — since a 6.40 score to close 2023.
Additionally, while aftermarket sentiment for the months ahead is unremarkable, with a mixture of mild optimism and a fears of stagnation or market regression, dealers are mostly positive. Both for the third quarter and the second half of the year, dealer predictions are stronger than the aftermarket.
What a difference a quarter makes
In April, we noted how weak equipment orders last summer led to weak business conditions for truck and trailer dealers in Q1. Dealers rated the first quarter as a 5.15 on our 1-10 scale, the ninth consecutive quarter with a sub-6 rating and the third lowest dealer score on record.
As such, while the 5.94 rating for Q2 extends the sub-6 rating streak to 10, underlying performance data was much improved and drove channel confidence notably higher. No dealers rated Q2 below a 4 and the mode among all dealers was a 6.
Equipment sales also were much improved. Only 12% of dealers reported new equipment sales as their weakest segment in Q2; that total had been 40% in Q1. And another 12% rated new equipment sales as their best segment. Service was the ultimately the second quarter struggle for most, with 59% rating it as their weakest unit.
How dealer responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
But equipment sales optimism for the months ahead appears to be tempering most weakening in repair order volume or pricing.
More than two thirds of dealers predict Q3 to be a 6 or 7 on our 1-10 scale, with the average among all dealer responders at 6.53. That prediction is the highest from the dealer channel since it predicted a 6.94 for the third quarter of 2023 (which was rated as a 6.70 upon its completion).
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Aftermarket leveling out after quicker recovery
Independent aftermarket participants in our survey had a much stronger 2025 than their dealer counterparts after reaching their nadir (4.95 on our scale) in the freight recession market in third quarter of 2024. The channel quickly bounced back to 6.04 in Q1 last year and now has surpassed a 6 on our quarterly rating in three of the last four surveys.
But despite that general consistency and outpacing of dealers, aftermarket sentiment did shift slightly downward in Q2. Our aftermarket responders estimate a 6 for business conditions in Q3 — more than half a point below dealers.
How aftermarket responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
And the last time aftermarket responders pulled back their predictions for upcoming quarter, they were right. After rating Q3 last year as a 6.14, aftermarket responders predicted a 5.61 for Q4 and the market contracted accordingly, with the channel rating it as a 5.63 in our post-Q4 survey in January.
This quarter’s prediction also is coupled with less long-term confidence.
Nearly 10% of aftermarket responders expect Q3 to weaken to a 3 on our 1-10 scale. Looking out six months, 48% of aftermarket survey responders expect business conditions in the second half of the year to be equal to or weaker than the same period last year. In the dealer channel, that number is just 36%.
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Footprint expansion plans slowing; top concerns mixed across channels
Interestingly, expansion plans are fairly homogenous across both channels despite shifts in market confidence. Between 40% and 50% of dealers and aftermarket responders are looking to grow their workforces in the next six months while the percentage of survey responders considering workforce reductions in both segments is below 10%.
Both channels also have become somewhat bearish regarding facility growth. Fewer than half of survey responders are considering expansion at this time. Half of dealers had been considering expansion in our last two surveys. Aftermarket consideration was growth also was recently higher at 57% in our last survey.
Why have expansion plans slowed?
For dealers it’s likely the economy, as 65% rate current economic business conditions (including inflation) as their biggest business concern. Used equipment sales at 12% is the only other top dealer concern with double-digit support.
The economy is a concern in the aftermarket too, but it doesn’t overwhelmingly dominate sentiment. Only 38% of aftermarket responders rank it as their top worry; tech recruitment (19%), non-tech employee recruitment (14%) and technology implementation (14%) are other top concerns.
TPS will conduct its 2026 third quarter MarketPulse survey in October and publish a brief synopsis of the data after it concludes.
Want to read more insights from our second quarter survey? Or participate in future surveys? We’d love to hear from you.
All truck and trailer dealers and independent aftermarket businesses are encouraged to participate in the TPS MarketPulse survey, and only businesses who choose to participate will receive complete survey results each quarter. For more information, and to register, please email [email protected].
