Data center construction and ramping up artificial intelligence (AI) remains the backbone of economic growth, FTR Transportation Intelligence says, and predicts it will remain so at least through the first part of 2027.
"Data centers are a huge deal," says FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise.
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In fact, in the third quarter, computers and peripheral equipment accounted for as much as 20% of GDP and while these kinds of things don't normally take up much freight volume, numbers this high can't be ignored. The sheer volume of servers and semiconductors added to both dry van and reefer volume as shippers tried to keep the sensitive equipment safe.
The AI boom has also pushed markers such as FTR's goods transportation sector data. In that dataset, imports count as a positive. And as imported semiconductors and other computer equipment are high value, it's pushed the numbers higher.
"This year, it's been a lot stronger," Vise says. "A lot of it is the AI investment we're talking about."
And it's going to continue, the analysts say. Economist Bill Witte called the third quarter numbers "a strong domestic economy" but warns he doesn't think the growth is sustainable. While the fourth quarter looks to be bright, the economy will slowly level out over the next year or so, he says, including a sinking-to-stabilizing unemployment rate that will settle out to around 4%.
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That's not to say there's still not a lot of uncertainty. The Nov. 3 midterm election reoriented Congress and the administration continues to have an affect on monetary, fiscal and trade policies, as well as international relations.
"I'm sort of gloomy about the possibility this changed political system in the Congress versus the administration having good outcomes," Witte says.
One policy still awaiting finalization is the EPA's NOx rule.
"Presumably, we have to have a final rule or nothing changes," Vise says. "At this point, I would imagine there's a lot of pricing that has to go to fleets that has an asterisk to it."
And that might make fleets hesitate to put in new orders on trucks as they consider the repercussions of ordering without finalized rules, particularly as it relates to nonconformance penalties.
"It does put a little bit of a freeze in the near term until it's all settled," he says.
