Happy New Year! 2025 certainly was a challenging year in the aftermarket — with tariffs being the main challenge.
The aftermarket forecast for 2025 and 2026 were certainly affected by this issue, but more on that in the next post.
For a deep dive on the heavy-duty aftermarket outlook — consider attending Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue (HDAD) in a little over a week, on Jan. 19, at the Gaylord Texan in Grapevine, Texas.
At MacKay & Company, we track a variety of inputs that are used to profile and forecast the aftermarket for replacement parts, tires and lubricants. One item, as discussed in past columns, is the impact of alternative power in new vehicles and the resulting impact on the aftermarket.
[RELATED: Flash sale on HDAD registration available through Thursday. Sign up now for the upcoming event]
Each year, MacKay & Company surveys several hundred fleets about the mix of the current power of their trucks and the forecasted mix in two-to-three years, five years and 10 years. While we have been asking about the current mix for years, we started asking about the forecast in 2019.
Currently, not a surprise, about 97% of fleets’ power units are powered by diesel or gas. Six years ago, fleets estimated that 2.5% of their power units would be powered by alternative power (anything other than diesel or regular gas) in five years, so they have tracked to their forecast in the short term.
The 3% alternative power is driven primarily by the use of biodiesel for medium-duty (Class 6 and 7) power units.
The more interesting changes this year were in the longer term outlook and forecast by fleets. While the two-to-three year and five-year outlooks are about the same as last year, the 10-year outlook dropped.
[RELATED: When it comes to alternative power, where are the fleets?]
In 2024, fleets forecast 21% of their power units would be powered by alternative power in 10 years (2034) and in 2025 that dropped to 16% (2035), a 5%-point drop. In both cases, the primary alternative fuel driving those numbers is battery electric for medium-duty trucks.
What changed in the last year? The biggest impact is likely the new administration and their preference for easing implementation and, where possible, eliminating onerous regulations that could not be met if left in place. This likely impacted fleets opinions on what they will be required to do in 10 years.
Does this mean alternative power options are going away?
Not at all. However, there seems to be more common-sense thinking around what works in particular applications and what timing is realistic. There is, of course, a lot of legal wrangling going on so common sense may not win the day.
There continue to be interesting developments in alternative fuels with renewable diesel and natural gas seeming to make the most headlines this past year. What’s not to like about a cleaner burning (yes still burning) fuel that can be dropped into current engines?
Ultimately, it would be exciting to see a technological breakthrough that makes an undeniable business case for its use without mandates. While it seems obvious that diesel was a better alternative than gas, it still took years for diesel engines to dominate the market, so it’s not likely that any technology will dominate overnight and, most likely, that it will be a mix of different power options in the future.
