A trio of factors are increasing optimism for Class 8 demand in the year ahead, ACT Research reported Wednesday in its most recent North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report.
After a lethargic year for orders in 2025, ACT Research traces possible optimism for 2026 to three primary factors: economic growth, freight rates and regulatory influence. The company says all three are finally showing stability and capability for improvement.
“First, the economy continues to exceed expectations, growing 4.4% quarter over year in Q3 2025. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow expects 4.2% growth in Q4,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. “AI- and wealth-driven economic growth helped to absorb overcapacity into the end of 2025, and the economy appears to have good momentum into early 2026. Looking forward, the high likelihood the Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional may lead to an inventory restock, further bolstering for-hire volumes.”
Vieth also cites the winter storms of December and January as market drivers, as spot freight rates rose in their wake.
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“Successive winter storms across the Midwest in December and January caused aggregate DAT spot rates to surge 17% year over year in January. DAT’s load-to-truck ratio rose from 5 in November to just above 9 at the end of last month,” he says. “The run-up in rates has likely given deep-pocketed large fleets confidence that the improving supply-demand balance will allow some of the early 2026 freight rate spike to stick beyond recent bad weather impacts.”
Finally, there’s regulation — or the lack of regulation as President Donald J. Trump’s administration continues to work to remove rules put into place in prior years.
“Part of the recent order uptick has been attributable to clarity around the EPA’s Clean Truck Low NOx rule after months of crickets following the EPA’s ‘review’ announcement last March,” says Vieth. “With fleets aging, and new engine technologies expected at the start of 2027, better economic growth and improving rates support some prebuying ahead of the coming mandate.”
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The vocational market looks better too, Vieth adds, as investment in data centers to support AI and tech innovation become more vital nationwide. He cites four companies set to deploy $650 billion in capital toward data centers and associated AI investments in 2026.
”Vocational appears poised to continue benefitting from strong secular tailwinds that show no signs of slowing in the short term,” Vieth says.
