The Class 8 truck order turnaround that began in December mostly continued in January, another positive sign for dealers and OEMs, but skepticism remains among research firms about the true potential of the recent market turnaround due to freight and other economic factors.
FTR reported Tuesday January 2026 North American Class 8 truck orders of 32,500 units, down 24% from December’s explosion but up 27% from January 2025. FTR states the January total marks the first consecutive year-over-year positive month totals since April and May 2024, and also reports the January total is well above its 10-year January average of 26,300 units.
ACT Research offered a similar but slightly less robust preliminary total at 30,800 units, up 20% year over year.
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In analyzing the data, FTR states the year-over-year improvement was likely driven by timing rather than being cyclical. FTR says even with January’s gain, cumulative orders for the 2026 order season from September 2025 to January are down 13% year over year, which could underscore the notion that any recent strength “reflects the execution of deferred replacement demand rather than a true demand inflection.”
“After a weak October and November, a few things have happened that, in our thinking, have helped spur recent order activity,” says Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “The U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, clarity surrounding EPA 2027 bolstered demand, and arguably most importantly, since the end of November, we’ve seen a sustained run up in spot rates after three successive Midwest snowstorms.”
FTR also points to EPA 2027 as a catalyst for the market’s recent improvements, but estimates, to date, most orders account for delayed activity not new demand.
Clearer tariff-adjusted pricing and improved regulatory visibility may have encouraged fleets to move forward with purchases that had been delayed through much of the fall, the company states, shifting order activity into late 2025 and early 2026 rather than creating incremental demand.
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Longer term, FTR Senior Analyst of Commercial Vehicles Dan Moyer states the market pressures that limited order activity at the opening of 2026 order boards still mostly exist, and must be alleviated for true market expansion.
“Some stabilization and improvement in the freight market since late 2025 also may have provided modest support at the margin, but fleet profitability and capital discipline remain binding constraints,” he says. “Purchasing behavior continues to be replacement-driven with only modest early EPA 2027 influence. Lingering downside risks include fragile freight fundamentals, elevated cost pressures, geopolitical uncertainty and broader macroeconomic risk. These risks temper at least some of the enthusiasm around the recent improvement in orders.
“A durable recovery would require notable and sustained year-over-year order growth as 2026 progresses and meaningful improvement in freight demand, freight pricing and overall economic conditions.”
In the medium-duty space, Vieth reports orders were up 11% year over year to 15,800 units.
“Given last January was the weakest January for orders since 2013, the 11% improvement seems to be more of an easy comp than meaningful improvement,” he states.
