
Private fleet capacity additions, inbound insourcing, and increased spot market presence have dragged out the for-hire freight downturn for at least a year, ACT Research reported this week in its most recent Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“While the truckload spot market continues to make gradual progress, seismic shifts in private fleet capacity are forestalling strong for-hire conditions,” saysTim Denoyer, ACT Research’s vice president and senior analyst. “We’ve been surprised at the magnitude of equipment overbuying over the past year, but Class 8 tractor sales are normalizing from a medium-term perspective.”
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Denoyer says ACT Research indicates tractor sales were impacted by mirror supply in the second quarter and briefly dipped below replacement in June, before surging in July as those vehicles were completed and delivered. He adds “the industry still isn’t finished adding capacity. Even as lower equipment supply is increasingly likely, private fleet capacity additions remain a feature of the cycle in the near-term.”
Denoyer says that is a big reason for-hire demand remains soft, ACT believes, even stating the near-record July import level is emblematic of growing consumer demand, the start of a broad restock and likely a decent peak season ahead.