ACT Research expects the for-hire freight recession to run into 2026, the company said Tuesday.
"We think international trade is a major question, particularly for trucking, driving 16-25% of U.S. surface freight volume," says Tim Denoyer, ACT Research's vice president and senior analyst. "With a historic backlog on the Supreme Court's emergency docket, but no appeal of the stay at this point, it's not likely to be decided before the court takes a few months off soon. But if the eventual appeal is successful, it could reduce U.S. import tariffs from around 20% currently to a high single-digit percentage. At least significantly delaying these tariffs by sending the issue to Congress would improve the outlook for goods demand."
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ACT released the analysis as part of its Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook Report.
At the end of May, the U.S. trade court blocked many of President Donald Trump's tariffs. The next day, a federal appeals court, in turn, blocked that ruling, leaving the tariffs in place.
"The 'major questions doctrine' is a legal argument the Supreme Court used to limit Biden's authority on student loans and climate, ruling that federal agencies can't make sweeping changes without clear congressional authorization," Denoyer says. "It was also cited by the U.S. Court of International Trade when it ruled the IEEPA reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs unlawful in late May. These tariffs continue as the ruling is stayed."
Denoyer also says the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum are on "firmer leagal ground," which is affecting equipment supply. Also still in place is a 25% tariff on vehicles and parts.
"Both have significant implications for freight markets," he says.
