ACT Research says tractor demand will stay soft as a freight recovery moves farther into the future.
"The publicly traded for-hire fleets, whose balance sheets we have tracked for over three decades, saw their weakest net income margins since the first quarter of 2010, in the first quarter of 2025," says Kenny Vieth, ACT's president and senior analyst. "With freight rate growth lagging the rate of inflation last quarter, there is no expectation that margins improved much in Q2. Private fleets have spent the past two years adding to fleet capacity, and we believe they have little need for additional supply, especially given significantly upside-down cost economics."
June Class 8 orders were down 36% year over year. Vocational demand is also waning.
"Like the tractor market, fading fundamentals and uncertainty have similarly negatively impacted demand for vocational equipment," Vieth says. "Worsening housing and construction markets and regulatory uncertainty have sapped strength that looked all but certain at the beginning of the year."
The results were reported in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook.
