ACT Research data shows winter weather clamped down on freight capacity during one of the strongest seasons of the year for demand. The slew of winter storms caused spot rates to jump in the last few weeks.
"After three winter storms in the first half of December, truck load spot rates are 10% above year-ago levels in late December, rising about 8% in seasonally adjusted terms over the past month," says Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst. "The combination of severe weather and solid holiday freight demand tells us the surge is temporary. Weather will warm and consumption will fall again after the holidays."
Denoyer says the cold snap has done more to move pricing than anything else in the past few years, and, as capacity contraction continues, the swing could continue into 2026.
There may also be the possibility of a pre-buy ahead of the EPA's low-NOx regulations for 2027, which will at least partially go into effect.
"A large pre-buy isn't likely, since fleets are still managing down excess capacity from overbuying in 2023-2024 and investment dollars are scarce amid generationally low for-hire truckload profit margins," Denoyer says. "But Class 8 orders tend to move with spot rates, regardless of the sustainability of the trend, and this dynamic provides a degree of moderation for the 2026 rate outlook."
