With freight volumes possibly collapsing and fleets continuing to struggle financially, new equipment investment plans are being sharply curtailed as 2025 closes, ACT Research addresses in its most recent Freight Forecast outlook report.
“Truckload fleet margins are at historic lows and unable to find traction, so the dollars aren’t there for equipment investment, particularly as tariffs push costs up,” says Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst.
Denoyer adds ACT’s outlook foresees “considerable declines in equipment demand in 2026,” with rates insufficient to offset cost inflation.
[RELATED: Truck tonnage has largest monthly reduction since January 2024]
“Demand remains choppy, but highway tractor capacity is contracting at a quickening pace, with ongoing closures in the for-hire market, the reversal of private fleet expansion and elevated driver enforcement,” he says. “The issue for the freight cycle is now the affordability reductions tariffs are imposing on U.S. businesses and consumers.
“Many of these taxes could be reversed if the Supreme Court upholds rulings that the IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, which seems more likely after oral arguments.”
