With the ongoing trade war and regulatory limbo continuing to weigh on a for-hire market recovery, tractor demand remains muted entering the final months of the year, ACT Research published in its North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook Thursday.
“For for-hire carriers, still managing the longest downturn in recent history, initial tariffs in the first half did two things: temporarily pushed retail sales above replacement levels, stalling a necessary capacity contraction and prolonging a rate recovery; and the first half’s large macro demand pull-forward has elevated the risk of weaker goods demand in second half, potentially prolonging the path to recovery,” says Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst.
[RELATED: ACT data shows trucking capacity shrinking]
He lists the many pressures on truck orders as freight rates remaining at low levels, a potential freight air-pocket inbound after a large goods pull-forward, tariff-driven goods inflation inbound, a pullback by private fleets after their significant market share grab in 2023 and 2024, uncertainty surrounding EPA 2027 and continued U.S. economic policy uncertainty.
“There is little evidence to support a more constructive 2026 outlook. Additionally, the newly announced Section 232 tariffs on imported heavy trucks adds to uncertainty in the short term,” he says.
And other markets appear only slightly stronger.
Vieth says the vocational market, like the tractor space, continues to be hampered in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds and emissions regulations.
“Softness in end markets like housing are not helpful. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads and data centers remain positive for vocational in the long run,” he says.
