The Class 8 truck market is on the cusp of a significant correction, while the medium-duty market continued to confound in May. Meanwhile, U.S. and Canadian Class 8 natural gas truck retail sales for the first five months of 2019 gained 43 percent year to date, according to ACT Research reports.
ACT Research’s recently released “Transportation Digest” suggests the U.S. economy will decelerate from the 2018 tax-cut-boosted vigorous growth of 2.9 percent to a real GDP forecast average of 2.4 percent this year and slightly below 2 percent in 2020.
“There is a gap between the perception that things remain A-OK in the heavy truck business on one hand and the rapid erosion of transportation fundamentals on the other. This is why ACT has been warning … about the possibility of a slowdown into the end of 2019,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst.
“Medium-duty build strengthened sequentially and sales became less of a drag, even as orders have softened. Fortunately for the [medium-duty] market, demand is more closely aligned with consumers and less with manufacturing,” Vieth says.
Regarding the year-to-date Class 8 natural gas retail truck sales increase of 43 percent this year, ACT’s AFQ: Alternative Fuels Quarterly report states year-to-date sales at this point in 2018 were down 18 percent, following a 13 percent full-year increase in 2017.
“Bucking the early decline pattern of the past few years, cumulative sales for the first five months of 2019 appear to be gaining ground,” says Ken Vieth, ACT senior partner and general manager. “Despite soft reports in three of the first five months this year, sales of natural gas-powered vehicles are on an overall upward trajectory, gaining 10 percent month over month, 60 percent compared with May 2018 and showing 43 percent improvement against the first five months of last year.”
Ken Vieth adds, “Based on news released in the popular press, natural gas vehicle purchases continued to be dominated by refuse fleets, as well as transit and school bus operators. Among truckers, it appears as though the majority of incremental volume came from current natural gas vehicle users replacing units or increasing their number. Additionally, in a sampling of news articles from 2019’s second quarter, notable sales and investments are going into natural gas, especially renewable natural gas.”
