ACT Research says August order and build volumes are at mulityear lows, making this year's the most important order season since 2016.
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"A year ago, the total Class 8 inventory was 61,800 units. At the end of July 2024, the Class 8 inventory was a record 88,800 units, an increase of 27,000 units year-over-year," says Kenny Vieth, ACT's president and senior analyst. "The increase has not been supported by demand, pushing stocks significantly above an inventory-to-retail sales inferred level. The same exercise works in the MD market as well. From a near-record 77,800 units in July 2023, July 2024-ending stocks had risen to a new record 101,900 units, an increase of 24,100 units year-over-year."
Vieth continued that August appears to be a lull before a hoped-for sustained surge.
"September is the month in which seasonal factors flip from accretive to dilutive, though September's factors are modest," he says. "The 'season' gets underway in earnest starting in October. While inventories are ultimately a headwind, the path of orders is foundational at this juncture: backlogs are low, and BL/BU ratios for Class 8 and trailers indicate unsustainable production levels relative to backlog support. Strong orders in Q4 and into Q1 are imperative."
The numbers were reported in the company's latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook. The publication reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years.
