In the aftermarket, the cutting edge always looms on the horizon. The next big product never hits the aftermarket first — that’s what assembly lines are for — but it’s always coming.
On Wednesday at the Commercial Vehicle Solutions Network (CVSN) Summit in Washington, D.C., Phillips Industries’ Corporate Vice President of R&D Dan Forthoffer took aftermarket distributor and supplier executives into the future, sharing his insights on what emerging technologies are in development for the commercial vehicle sector, their viability and when they could find their way onto aftermarket shelves.
Forthoffer was enthusiastic due to the sheer volume of innovation on the precipice of the industry. Forthoffer says potential efficiency and return on investment (ROI) gains for new solutions are vast, and many will offer strong revenue potential for aftermarket operations.
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“This is a super exciting time in the trucking industry,” he said.
Forthoffer tackled trendsetting topics like advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), generative AI, prognostics, autonomous trucks, electric and fuel cell vehicles. Forthoffer believes each innovation has a place in the future of trucking and, eventually, the aftermarket, but when each reaches the channel will vary.
He also noted it’s important to take the advertised potential of these products somewhat skeptically. Not every product is a true game changer; incremental improvement should still be viewed as a win.
“It’s good to take the hype out of new products to see what they are really going to do,” he said.
Forthoffer started Wednesday with ADAS because it’s the solution that’s already here, creeping more into the aftermarket each day. Forthoffer said this technology is designed to reduce accidents and emergency repairs, and will reduce aftermarket sales of products required for those service events. But, he also noted ADAS technologies require wiring harnesses, connectors, cameras and sensors to operate properly and those components do have life cycle limitations. Distributors and installers will see increased revenue potential in those categories moving forward.
Forthoffer moved to prognostics, and said the concept of advanced preventive maintenance, of knowing when a component is likely to fail before it does, will change how carriers make aftermarket purchases. Instead of racing to buy a part when a unit’s down, fleets will have days or weeks to purchase a component and be able to schedule a service event to fit a vehicle’s operating schedule. As such, Forthoffer said carriers may put more parts orders up for bid, looking for the vendor who can best meet their price and quality needs.
On other futuristic terms, Forthoffer was very bullish on generative AI and its potential not just for manufacturers but also in warehouse distributor operations, managing inventory, procurement, accounting and more.
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He also spoke highly of fuel cell electric vehicles, though mostly as a concept. He said FCEVs truly offer the environmental benefits electric vehicles claim to provide but actually don’t, but said he struggles to see how the technology finds its way into the Class 8 space as a viable option. As for EVs, he said the regional haul, waste, bus and yard markets where the technology is already being adopted are likely to remain the best place for the technology long term.
“I don’t see battery electric as a solution for long haul,” he said.
Forthoffer also spoke of other technologies like ADAS that are less revolutionary but still possible aftermarket revenue generators, such as tire pressure monitoring and inflation, new 7-way connectors and autocouplers for yard trucks. He said all of these categories require aftermarket support and will only grow in demand as the years progress.
