New equipment demand continues to be pushed by twin tailwinds of higher freight rates and increasing regulatory clarity, ACT Research says. The analysis came in the company's latest North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook.
"Class 8 order strength continued in May, with preliminary orders of 26,500 units, up 103% year over year and 12% month over month (seasonally adjusted), respectively," says Ken Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. "Despite entering what is historically a weak period in the annual order cycle, new equipment demand remains supported by materially improved spot and contract rates, on top of regulatory clarity."
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Vieth says spot freight increases of 39% year over year in stride and remain above contract rates, a bright spot for carrier contract negotiations. The driver supply is also tightening, with levels hitting levels not seen since mid-2021, Vieth says.
"FMCSA's crackdown on nondomiciled CDL holders became official in March, but self-selection appears to have started around the start of 2026," Vieth says. "Add crackdowns on cheater ELDs, closed driver schools and strict immigration enforcement that are squeezing productivity via restricting logbook cheating and a narrowing of the pipeline of new CDL candidates needed to offset freight growth and baby boomer retirements."
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Vieth says an argument can be made that driver supply will remain tight and that fleets can use that to find some pricing relief after three years of falling profitability.
"Carriers' profitability reprieve coupled with inbound regulations associated with even higher equipment costs in 2027 have also helped spur Class 8 order activity," Vieth says. "Without a regulation looming, the trailer market is still waiting for materially stronger demand to arrive."
Data centers and other buildout needs are fueling predicted growth in the vocational market, Vieth says, adding that last week, Google and Space X both announced plans to raise $160 billion for AI projects.
