September truck orders see huge seasonal boost

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International

Truck orders rose substantially last month as manufacturers opened their order boards. FTR reports preliminary truck orders of 30,000 units, up 107% month over month but down 4% from 2023. ACT Research's preliminary estimate was even stronger at 37,100 units, up 0.3% year over year.

FTR says its data falls in line with seasonal expectations as the average September order level over the last seven years is 32,170 units. Given the current stagnation in the truck freight market from a volume and rate perspective, the company says this is a very balanced order number and suggests an initial, healthy level of demand for new trucks in 2025 as September is typically the opening of order boards for the following year.

“This month, OEMs saw positive market demand, though the magnitude of the month over month increases varied. The vocational market considerably outperformed the conventional sector, driving most of the month over month improvement,” says Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles. 

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“Class 8 orders jumped well above trend and seasonally elevated expectations in September,” adds Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Historically, September is the first month of stronger orders, as the OEMs open their order books to next year’s orders. As such, for the first time since March, seasonality lowers the monthly order volume. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Class 8 orders jumped 92% from August, to 35,200 units, a 423,000 [seasonal adjusted annual rate].”

FTR says its year-to-date (YTD) performance is now at replacement demand levels with an average of 20,107 net orders per month. Despite four consecutive months of lower year over year orders, strong early-year performance has kept 2024 YTD net orders up 11% from 2023. North American Class 8 orders have now totaled 270,819 units for the last 12 months.

Moyer adds, “Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at replacement demand levels in 2024 to date. We expect a modest increase in September backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month. With inventory remaining near record levels, we also expect further downward pressure on build rates through the end of 2024.”

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In the medium-duty space, Vieth says orders “continued at range-bound levels on a very slowly declining trend.” ACT's preliminary Classes 5-7 orders were mixed, rising nominally month over month, but falling seasonally. In September, medium-duty net orders fell 4,700 units, or 20% from 2023, to 19,100 units, the company reports. 

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