ACT Research said Friday that preliminary numbers show July trailer orders nudged up 1,000 units from last month, but are still down 37% from last year. It blames, in part, continuing weak markets and full inventories — and sees little hope for improvement.
"July data continues to bear witness to our expectations of weaker demand against the backdrop of elevated order velocity the past few years, continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, and already-filled dealer inventories," says Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT Research. "That said, it is important to remember that for orders, we remain in the weakest months of the annual cycle, minimally suggesting there is no catalyst for stronger orders before the fall and the OEMs' opening of their 2025 order books."
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This year's net trailer orders is just under 82,000 units, a 26% drop from the first seven months of last year.
"While we do see fleets starting to make more money this year, thereby increasing their ability to purchase equipment, that improvement is off a very low base as carrier profits in the first half of 2024 were at levels not seen since early 2010," McNealy says. "Looking to 2025, the trailer industry is also pressured by regulation, as we continue to expect fleets' willingness to spend will lean toward the purchase of new power units ahead of the EPA's implementation of 2027 regulations."
McNealy says dealers are making some progress with inventory levels but cancellations are still high, which brings elevated concern about softer market conditions and about the future supply chain when demand does start to increase.
