Early data shows trailer orders slipped in November falling around 20% from October's numbers.
ACT Research showed a drop of 24% from October while FTR Transportation Intelligence showed a slightly better drop of 19%.
"Sequentially, a slight dip in net orders is expected, as October is usually the strongest order intake month of the annual cycle, with orderboards for the next year beginning to open," says Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications. "November's tally brings the year-to-date net order total to 151,300 units or 9% more net orders than were accepted through year-to-date November 2024."
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Year-over-year, November was off 37%, according to ACT and 45% by FTR's math. FTR says the drop-off highlights the fragility of demand in the trailer space as October's bump proved not to be the start of a recovery.
"Not only do net orders continue to underwhelm, cancellations remain elevated," McNealy says. "Looking forward, concerns about moderating economic activity, ongoing weak for-hire carrier profitability, and ambiguous government policies remain as challenges to stronger trailer demand. While pent-up demand is building and fleets will eventually need to divert capex to trailing equipment purchases deferred over the past few years, stronger revenues will be needed before the purchase spigot is opened wider."
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FTR shows trailer production finally dropped for November, down 23% month over month, but production is still outpacing demand.
"The U.S. trailer market is increasingly constrained by trade policy, elevated input costs and cautious fleet behavior," says Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR. "Policy-related actions are now a central driver of both cost inflation and demand uncertainty. Limited visibility on trade outcomes continues to complicate pricing, sourcing and capital allocation decisions across the industry."
Moyer points to Section 232 tariffs and a government investigation into antidumping and imports as significant headwinds.
"Overall, tariffs and expanding trade actions are locking in higher costs and sustained uncertainty across the U.S. trailer market," Moyer adds. "OEMs and suppliers likely will respond by prioritizing localized sourcing, tariff-aware design and flexible pricing. Dealers must manage inventory carefully and set clear expectations as higher price floors constrain demand. For fleets, rising acquisition costs and policy risk favor selective ordering, longer trade cycles and a sharper focus on total cost of ownership."
