Retail depreciation finally slowed in the used truck market last month but that shift had little impact on prices, J.D. Power reported Thursday in its April 2024 Commercial Truck Guidelines report.
In the auction sector, volume was up but pricing was down and sleepers brought noticeably less money than the prior month. J.D. Power reports most late-model sleepers moving through auction channels are marked by extremely high mileage for their age.
Within J.D. Power's benchmark model, average march pricing was as follows:
- Model year (MY) 2022: $96,970; $12,220 (14.4%) higher than February
- MY 2021: $49,816; $4,661 (8.6%) lower than February
- MY 2020: $31,793; $5,271 (14.2%) lower than February
- MY 2019: $27,206; $3,911 (12.6%) lower than February
- MY 2018: $21,498; $3,293 (13.3%) lower than February
J.D. Power says MY 2022 pricing was due to a small number of trucks sold and is not "representative of actual market movement.
Average auction selling price for 3- to 6-year-old sleeper tractors, adjusted for mileage.
"Otherwise, late-model sleepers brought 7.2% less money than in February, and 34.0% less money than in March 2023," the company says. "Values for the newest model years available in the marketplace are now about 6% lower than the strong pre-pandemic period of 2018 in nominal figures, or about 24% lower if adjusted for inflation."
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The company adds current pricing is about 51% higher than the last market nadir in late 2019, or about 24% higher if adjusted for inflation. Depreciation in 2024 is averaging 7.2% per month. J.D. Power says March depreciation was a shift upward after a stable period of several months. The company believes this second wave of devaluation "appears to be a combination of individuals and small fleets leaving the industry — frequently a result of loan default — and ongoing trade activity as new equipment is received. Late in 2023, price stabilization suggested the market was absorbing this increased inventory. That dynamic changed as the 2024 market opened up in February."
Average retail selling price for 3- to 5-year-old sleeper tractors, adjusted for mileage
In the retail sector, depreciation was better but pricing wasn't.
J.D. Power says 4- and 5-year-old trucks have been selling in greater numbers over the last several months, mostly through OEM retail outlets. "As is typical in a volume-driven market, the price variance between competing models has increased, particularly when looking at specific drivetrain specs," the company states.
Overall, the average sleeper tractor retailed in March 2024, per J.D. Power data, was 71 months old, had 437,280 miles and brought $60,087. Compared with February, this average sleeper was identical in age, had 1,472 (0.3%) more miles and brought $2,313 (3.7%) less money. Compared with March 2023, this average sleeper was identical in age, had 18,226 (4.0%) fewer miles and brought $16,105 (21.0%) less money, the company says.
Pricing for late-model trucks was as follows:
- MY 2023: $137,717; $2,196 (1.6%) lower than February
- MY 2022: $100,746; $23,609 (19.0%) lower than February
- MY 2021: $70,430; $3,707 (5.0%) lower than February
- MY 2020: $54,985; $372 (0.7%) lower than February
- MY 2019: $43,774; $1,650 (3.6%) lower than February
- MY 2018: $34,587; $438 (1.3%) lower than February
J.D. Power says a large segment 3-year-old owner-operator trucks drove the total price of 3- to 5-year-old sleepers down 10.9% from February. Taking those trucks out moves the price shift to down just 3.1%. J.D. Power thinks the latter is more "representative of actual market movement."
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The company states that group brought 15.9% less money in March of 2024 compared with March 2023. Late-model sleepers are now bringing money comparable to the last strong pre-pandemic period of late 2018 in nominal dollars, or about 19% less when adjusted for inflation. Compared with the last weak pre-pandemic period, J.D. Power says late-model sleeper values are now running 30% higher in nominal dollars or 7% higher in real dollars.
Depreciation in 2024 is averaging 2.4% per month.
Daycab sales remain a little better. J.D. Power states daycabs continue to bring equal or better money than sleepers after three years of age, apples-to-apples. Compared with February 2024, late-model daycabs brought 1.2% less money in March. Compared with March 2023, this segment brought 16.9% less money. Depreciation in 2024 is averaging 2.5% per month. Additionally, the sell-off of Yellow Corp. single axle daycabs did not appreciably impact the market for tandem axle units in March, the company says.
Finally, the company reported no real change to rooftop sales last month, down just 0.1 trucks from February. "Equity, financing and supply continue to make the current environment tough for dealers, but increased sales of late-model trucks suggest check writers are out there," the company says.
For more information, and to read the entirety of this month’s report, please CLICK HERE.
