This week our roundup looks at (possible) good news for truck OEMs and dealers as ACT Research has amended its 2026 production forecast slightly due to recent events, and the downstream negative impact that could have on trailer dealers. We also look at shifts in the contracting U.S. trucking fleet, touch on Mack’s new Anthem hitting the assembly line and tease Heavy Duty Aftermarket Week and our Distributor of the Year Award, the upcoming ATD Show and more.
Lucas: Hey everyone. Lucas here. I got a lot of exciting stuff I want to run through with today’s TPS weekly news roundup.
I’m going to start with a webinar that MEMA hosted Wednesday with ACT Research and ACT was giving its updated forecast for 2026 and 2027 for commercial vehicle, truck and trailer production. And it was, actually, there’s some positivity there. ACT believes that the high truck orders we saw last month in December was the result of certainty around EPA 2027, or at least close to certainty around EPA 2027. ACT believes that we’ll see some, some higher orders again this month. That anyone [who] was waiting for a little bit more clarity around EPA was putting those orders in last month and this month. ACT does expect that orders will slow down a little bit then in February and March for the latter half of the winter and into the spring. But they do see the market maybe turning around. They say capacity continues to come out of the market. There’s an expectation that tariff activity will normalize, or at least normalize compared to last year. All that that’s good for the market.
So, ACT is updating its 2026 forecast just up a little bit — 246,000 units for Class 8 production this year, 246,000 units next year. In the medium-duty space, Classes 5-7, they’re saying 216,000 units this year, 267,000 units next year. Trailers is kind of getting the short end of the stick. The expectation from ACT is that carriers will purchase their trucks first or they’ll order their trucks first and then they’ll order their trailers. Their trailer forecast is 183,000 units this year. Not what you wanted to hear trailer guys, but 257,000 next year. So, you’ve got to get a little bit longer and then hopefully the market turns around.
Obviously, if things turn around faster, if we see some sort of, event that really drives freight forward, maybe all those things go at an even higher level. But good to see some positivity and some forecast for 2026.
On the topic of freight contraction and capacity, I posted, our Mapping the Market quarterly report on fleet demographics earlier in the week. That uses data from RigDig, which is a sister brand of TPS within the Fusable network, and I noted the carrier population decreased by 1.47% in Q4, the truck population by 2.17% and the trailer population by 1.34%. I know for you parts and service guys out there, you’re thinking, ‘Well, fewer trucks on the road, fewer pieces of equipment on the road is not good for us.’ That’s true, but we do need to continue to bring some capacity out of the market so that freight rates can rise.
And when freight rates rise, people buy trucks, they put more trucks into operation. So that might not sound like a good thing for today, but in the long term, that is a good thing for the entirety of this space because we do need to find that equilibrium so carriers can start driving those rates higher and have some profitability they can use to invest in equipment. So, some good news there.
Like I said [last week], HDAW is coming up on Monday. We had a HDAW preview for our fifth [Distributor of the Year] finalist Wheeler Fleet Solutions on Monday. Check that out. HDAW coverage will be all next week, all across TPS. Make sure you’re checking out our website, our social channels. We’ll have some videos on YouTube of the Distributor of the Year Award announcement and then some of the other awards at HDAW.
Then ATD is in a couple weeks. We’ve been profiling the ATD Truck Dealer of the Year nominees, so check those out on the website. One came out this week, another one will be out next week, and then two more leading into ATD.
Also this week, Mack’s Anthem is now under production at its Lehigh Valley production facility. So if you’re a dealer, you’ve sold those trucks, they’re finally coming. They’re on the production line and they’l be coming later this year.
Some other great stuff on TPS this week. Be sure to go to the website, check it out. Have a great weekend. If you’re going to HDAW, we’ll see you there Sunday or Monday. If not, be sure to like and subscribe, check out our news.
Have a great rest of your weekend and we’ll see you next week. Thanks everyone. Bye.
