December’s unexpected and massive order boom was a welcome sight for truck dealer and OEMs alike but turning the month into a trend seems unlikely until freight conditions improve, ACT Research President and Senior Analyst Kenny Vieth shared during a MEMA Pulse webinar Wednesday.
Vieth says early analysis of last month’s order totals indicate incoming clarity around EPA 2027 NOx regulations and their corresponding price bump on next year’s equipment led to the sudden rise. He says some carriers are likely to make similar orders this month — “we do expect orders to remain elevated in January,” he says — but says there isn’t enough cash on hand across the market to turn the good news into a full-on market overhaul.
“Carrier profits were at generational lows in 2025,” he says. Bad weather helped the spot market last month but housing, trade and other key drivers of freight demand and pricing remain weak.
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Yet Vieth notes exiting the order trough that has hamstrung OEMs and dealers for the past two years in 2026 is possible. December’s orders are unquestionably a good sign. It might even be likely if trade policy normalizes and capacity keeps exiting the carrier market. Speaking to MEMA members Tuesday, Vieth says OEMs will take a market turnaround no matter how and when it occurs.
ACT is forecasting it happens in the latter half of the year, Vieth says, and cites a number of data points for the prediction.
EPA 2027 is one domino the industry needed to fall. He says ACT estimates the 2027 NOx technology will add approximately $8,000 to the cost of a new Class 8 truck, not ideal for penny-pinching carriers but well below estimates of $15,000 to $35,000 that have floated through the industry in recent years. Vieth says now carriers can make their investment calculations with those numbers plugged in.
Another welcome sign is the continued exiting of carriers and equipment from the active truck population. ACT estimates about 1.5% of the Class 8 market shrunk in 2025 and Vieth expects a similar contraction in 2026. He says any continued reduction in capacity will position carriers in stronger positions when renegotiating contract rates throughout the year.
Finally there’s the matter of tariffs. Vieth says the Supreme Court rules President Donald J. Trump’s IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional, that could be an inflection point for economic investment (even if President Trump enacts tariffs using other avenues). He also says it helps that the 25% tariff on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles is only actually adding 3% to 5% to sticker prices.
Vieth states if the market turns around, it’ll first become evident in ACT Research’s Tractor Dashboard. He says the dashboard has produced negative readings for 40 straight months but was improving as 2025 concluded. He says the dashboard typically leads orders by three to six months and production by nine to 12. Which means if it can turn positive early this year, the second half may finally be a good one.
ACT Research's Class 8 Tractor Dashboard
All these factors have enabled ACT Research to update its truck forecast upward, albeit slightly. Vieth says the firm is now anticipating 246,000 units for Class 8 production in 2026 and 2027. In the medium-duty space, the expectation is 216,000 and 267,000 units.
[RELATED: Dealers eye 2026 recovery despite market limitations]
Vieth also acknowledges the trailer market might not catch the tailwind trucks could receive. At the 2025 NTDA Convention last fall, Vieth noted the trailer market is desperate for an infusion of new equipment. He says that’s still the case, but if the market picks up, carriers will likely choose to update their power equipment first.
He knows that’s not what trailer dealers, OEMs and vendors want to hear.
“If it’s been hand-to-mouth on power side, it’s more like a scene from Oliver Twist in the trailer market,” he says.
