ACT Research sees reasons to be hopeful as the year begins.
"Firstly, the economy, aided by AI tailwinds, continues to outperform expectations, with GDP rising 4.3% in Q3. Crucially for the trucking industry, consumer spending remains robust, account for more than half of Q3 GDP growth," says Ken Vieth, ACT's president and senior analyst. "Though concerns about the balance of growth persist, as wealthy households are behind most of the spending."
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Vieth also pointed to stronger spot rates at the end of 2025, aided by consumer spending, weather events and capacity contraction. Much of those gains, however, are likely to reverse if January's warm weather holds.
"Lastly, EPA's mid-November announcement regarding EPA '27 added much needed regulatory clarity, and based on December's orders, likely drove some decision making," Vieth says. "ACT's preliminary look at December data shows North American Class 8 net orders totaled 42,700 units, up 16% year over year. In addition to regulatory pressures aiding demand, an increasingly older fleet should facilitate some additional replacement demand in 2026."
Vieth's comments were part of the North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook from ACT.
