According to a new report released Thursday by Navigant Research, global electric drive truck and bus sales are projected to surpass alternative fuels by 2030 as the second most common powertrain in medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles.
Though Navigant acknowledges these powertrains will remain under 25 percent of total truck and bus sales, it writes in “Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles” that electric advancements in the automotive industry are driving commercial adoption.
“Electric drive commercial vehicles are finally reaping the benefits of the significant investments made in electric drive systems for passenger cars,” says Lisa Jerram, principal research analyst with Navigant Research. “While most markets remain in a trial or early adoption phase of plug-in electric trucks and buses, cost reductions and performance improvements are attracting increased interest from fleets and cities.”
“Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles” examines the global medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) category, providing global market forecasts for annual sales and vehicle populations, segmented by country and powertrain type, through 2035.
In it, Navigant says that in terms of cost, reliability, efficiency, and ready availability of fueling options, the benefits of conventional diesel in certain truck and bus applications set a high bar for alternatives. However, governments around the world are tightening emissions restrictions and encouraging the transition away from gasoline or diesel.
The company says alternative fuels such as natural gas and propane are still expected to outsell electric drive powertrains through most of the forecast period, but electric drive options will have much higher growth, even when excluding China with its dominant market share of electric drive medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.
The new report analyzes the global medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) market by four major categories: medium-duty (MD) trucks, heavy-duty (HD) trucks, MD buses, and HD buses. Each of these categories is also broken down into 10 powertrain types: conventional gasoline, gasoline hybrid, gasoline plug-in hybrid, conventional diesel, diesel hybrid, diesel plug-in hybrid, battery electric, natural gas, propane, and hydrogen fuel cells. Global market forecasts for annual sales and vehicle population, segmented by country and powertrain type, extend through 2035. The Excel databook accompanying this report also includes pivot tables for annual sales and population segmented by country, vehicle segment, and powertrain type.
For more information about the report, and to download a copy, please CLICK HERE.