As tariffs continue to sow uncertainty in commercial vehicle markets, even the Supreme Court’s current evaluation of the legality and possible overturning of IEEPA tariffs is not enough to change the short-term outlook for truck sales, ACT Research states in its most recent North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report.‘’
“The initial tariff roll out in April sparked a mini-prebuy and pushed Class 8 tractor retail sales above replacement levels, further prolonging the longest for-hire downturn in recent memory,” says Ken Vieth, ACT Research president and senior analyst. “On top of the IEEPA tariffs, the trucking industry is contending with the new Section 232 tariffs, a 25% levy on the value of foreign content in imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses.
He continues, “Seeing as we are nearing Year 4 of generationally low carrier profits, and freight rates remain sluggish, the sudden and onerous cost increase will reduce already weak new U.S. vehicle demand, at a time when backlog cushions should be accumulating.”
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Vieth adds short-term vocational market forecasting is equally muted.
“Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short to medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds and emissions regulations. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads and data centers remain positive for vocational in the long run,” he says.
And tariff certainty would not alleviate all market headwinds, as rising prices are just one more obstacle in an already obstacle-strewn 2026 demand outlook.
ACT describes the total list of 2026 demand headwinds as follows:
- Freight rates and for-hire carrier profits remain mired at recessionary levels.
- A freight air-pocket happening now that follows an extended tariff-avoiding freight pull-forward.
- Accelerating tariff-driven goods inflation that will weigh on freight volumes.
- A pullback by private fleets after significant fleet expansion in 2023-2024.
- Specific uncertainty surrounding EPA’27.
- Macro-level uncertainty around US economic policy.
