“We’re doing okay. That’s the message I want to communicate,” says ACT Research Vice President Steve Tam.
Tasked Friday at the 2025 Used Truck Association (UTA) Convention in San Diego with offering insights on the U.S. economy and trucking sector, Tam made it clear from the outset that things could be worse. The economy could be depressed, but it’s not. Freight capacity could be looser but it’s actually improving. Used truck prices aren’t on a meteoric rise, but they’re outpacing last year and holding mostly firm amid recently higher volumes.
Tam says until freight takes off, selling used or new trucks is going to be limited by demand. And while he jokes ACT Research and other firms “are now celebrating our fourth anniversary of forecasting a second-half recovery,” that prediction isn’t unfounded.
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Slumping new truck orders (down 29% year to date, per ACT data) are reducing the pace at which the fleet grows, and could lead OEMs to reduce production rates to maintain their backlog. Additionally, externally driven efforts to reduce the numbers of available drivers will, eventually drive capacity into an area where freight rates will inch forward even if tonnage does not.
It also helps that unlike the new truck space the used truck market isn’t closing 2025 in the basement.
Tam says ACT Research Class 8 used truck sales data indicates volumes are down 9.2% year to date but values are up 13%. In the retail sector, specifically, volumes are up 2.2% year to date with price down by only 0.8%.
Other metrics are equally sound. Tam says Class 8 depreciation is tracking to just over 1% a month, while inventory has started to regress and ACT’s used truck dashboard, which Tam calls his ‘cheat sheet’ for bosses, shows more green arrows then red ones.
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“Overall we’re doing pretty good,” he says, showing the dashboard. “If volumes are up and price is steady, what more can we ask for?”
ACT Research's Used Truck Dashboard through September 2025.
Looking ahead, he says ACT Research is estimating Class 8 truck sales declining to 212,000 units next year before growing substantially — possibly as much as 20% — in 2027. Tam says another weak year for new truck sales in 2026 will only further reduce capacity and, hopefully, boost freight rates in the latter half of the year and adds the value proposition for used truck sales should enable the market to continue growing in the months again.
He says ACT’s biggest long-term concern for used sales might be a pre-buy. Not ahead of 2027, but the next one. ACT isn’t predicting a pre-buy for 2026 anymore but Tam says one could occur near the end of the decade if more regulations are implemented in 2030 or 2031.
“That would lead to an influx in volumes,” he says.
