Trucking activity was up a tick in December but was unable to recover the losses suffered by the market in the fall, the American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) reported this week.
According to ATA’s seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index, truck freight was up 0.4% in December, its second small increase after rising 0.2% in November.
“Despite two consecutive gains, tonnage remains at low levels as the freight metric contracted a total of 2.7% in September and October,” says Bob Costello, ATA chief economist. “Soft manufacturing and construction activity are continuing to suppress freight levels, as they did for much of last year.”
ATA says its seasonally advanced tonnage index was 112.9 in December. The index, which is based on 2015 as 100, increased 0.9% from the same month in 2024 after decreasing the two previous months on a year-over-year basis.
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For the fourth quarter, ATA states the index average fell 1.8% from the third quarter, the largest sequential quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2023, and was down 0.3% from the final three months in 2024.
Overall, Costello says tonnage rose just 0.1% over 2024 averages. But he also admits that was the first annual gain for the industry since 2022.
The not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 111.9 in December, 4.3% above November’s reading of 107.3.
Spot rates surge but market turnaround far from assured, despite need
Weekly freight indicators also were better in December. ACT Research reported Thursday truckload spot rates spent three to four weeks up double-digit percentages year over year in late December and early January.
“Most of the jump in spot rates was due to severe weather, but Class 8 orders also rose in December with improved truckload conditions and a degree of clarity for EPA 2027 low-NOx regulations. We expect a small equipment capacity contraction in 2026, but one that will likely continue in 2027,” says Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst.
He adds, “Growth has been led largely by a narrow segment of the economy, but it has room to broaden out if the looming Supreme Court tariff decision brings tariffs down. This would lead to additional broad disinflation, providing more leeway for the Fed to further lower rates, spurring freight-sensitive sectors like housing and durable goods. After destocking in [the fourth quarter of] 2025, we think the Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs could provide a positive catalyst for freight demand.”
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Yet Denoyer also acknowledges the tariffs decision is uncertain. And removing the IEEPA tariffs does not ensure the White House will not use other methods to implement levies.
“Upholding the tariffs would further extend the recessionary conditions the trucking industry has been contending with for the past four years, by pressing prices up further,” Denoyer says. “The average age of a U.S. Class 8 tractor is now 6.3 years old, the highest in more than a decade, which should help usher in a new phase of the truckload cycle.”
