ACT Research released a new report on the Mexican trailer market on Tuesday. It finds the Mexican economy is growing and cross-border freight activity is increasing.
"Unlike other ACT Research reports, the information in this report does not come from confidential data provided directly from OEMs," says Jennifer McNealy, director of commerical vehicle analysis and publication at ACT. "It represents registration data, which gave us the opportunity to not only dissect by manufacturer, but also to share industry and segment data by trailer maker. And while this does not represent manufacturer build, in lieu of any other market-sizing data, it does provide an excellent proxy."
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The report shows commercial trailer registrations in Mexico are up 21% year-over-year as of June, but the number of trailer manufacturers in the market has declined.
"In 2016, there were 293 trailer manufacturers registering units in Mexico," says Bailey Schnur, research and publications manager at ACT. "Since then, the number of companies has oscillated around that near midpoint. In 2023, a record-high 335 manufacturers were adding trailers to the fleet. Through the first half of 2024, that number declined to 297. It will be interesting to see if any additional OEMs enter the market during the second half of the year."
In 2016, there were 21,070 commercial trailers registered in Mexico. That number increased to 32,620 new trailers registered in 2023. In the first half of 2024, 18.358 trailers were registered.
"Compared to June 2023 when 15,224 trailers were registered, industry capacity is up 21% with half the year remaining," Schnur says. "Of the new trailers through June 2024, 73% of them were registered by the top 25 manufacturers in Mexico. Four of those top manufacturers are U.S.-based and hold 14% of the total trailer market below-the-border registrations."
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David Teolis, ACT's chief economist, says nearshoring can act as a catalyst for increased manufacturing investment, infrastructure development and supply chain resilience.
"Though the path to realizing these strategic advantages involves navigating certain risks and challenges, nearshoring is poised to drive regional economic competitiveness, growth and stability over the long term," Teolis says.
Truck crossings at the Mexican border rose 4.4% year-over-year in September and are up 3.3% year-to-date through the third quarter.
"Truck crossings from Mexico have grown considerably since the pandemic," says Carter Vieth, research analyst with ACT. "Risks to nearshoring, and by default cross-border activity , remain, particularly political risks in the U.S. and Mexico."
