While August's preliminary numbers show an increase of about 500 units over July, ACT Research says orders are still down 40% over last August. Seasonally adjusted for the order cycle, August's tally comes in at 9,500 units, down about 7% over July.
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"This month's data brings year-to-date 2024 U.S. trailer net orders to 89,400 units, a 27% contraction when compared to the first eight months of 2023," says Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT. "Despite the sequential order improvement, August data continue to bear witness to our expectations of weaker demand against the backdrop of elevated order velocity the past few years, continuing the weak for-hire truck market fundamentals and already-filled dealer inventories."
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McNealy added that August is one of the weakest months in the order cycle and stronger orders weren't expected in the month.
"An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends on the next few months as OEMs open, or more fully open their 2025 books," she says.
Fleets are starting to make more money, she continued, improving the chances they are able to buy new equipment. Furthermore, the trailer market is expected to feel the pinch of new regulations on Class 8 tractors in the next few years.
"We continue to expect fleets' willingness to spend will lean toward the purchase of new power units ahead of the EPA's implementation of 2027 regulations," McNealy says. "Industry anecdotes suggest that the 'pause button' is expected to remain pressed through the remainder of 2024, and those on the frontlines are expressing concern about 2025 as well. The timing and size of 2025 order bookings is the wildcard."
