J.D. Power says September's auction numbers are still showing depreciation higher than normal.
Four- to six-year-old trucks brought in 5.6% less money in September than in August, and 37.1% less money than in September 2022. In the first nine months of 2023, late-model sleepers brought 37.6% less money than in the same period last year. Monthly depreciation this year is averaging 4.8%, J.D. Power says.
For three- to seven-year-old trucks, average pricing for the benchmark truck was:
- Model year 2021: $64,556 or $1,181 (1.9%) higher than August.
- Model year 2020: $51,281or $8,262 (13.9%) lower than August.
- Model year 2019: $36,710 or $3,241 (9.7%) higher than August.
- Model year 2018: $27,535 or $1,897 (6.4%) lower than August.
- Model year 2017: $20,043 or $2,093 (9.5%) lower than August.
J.D. Power says because of the increasing number of trucks with missing titles, unverified mileage and other issues, individual model years may show month-over-month swings that are not necessarily representative of the actual market. However, the company says it's confident in the macro generalizations for September.
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Also not representative of actual market movement are the company's universal averages. J.D. Power says there was a spike of 2022 trucks sold in September. The average sleeper sold in September was 67 months old with 416,680 miles. It went for $71,681. Compared with August, September's average sleeper was four months newer with 31,872 fewer miles and brought $7,115 more. Compared with September 2022, the average sleeper was two months newer with 20,080 fewer miles and was $33,266 less.
The average pricing for two- to six-year-old trucks was:
- Model year 2022: $117,771 or $6,763 (5.4%) lower than August.
- Model year 2021: $86,568 or $1,403 (1.6%) lower than August.
- Model year 2020: $69,539 or $3,067 (4.2%) lower than August.
- Model year 2019: $56,641 or $1,059 (1.8%) lower than August.
- Model year 2018: $48,470 or essentially identical to August.
J.D. Power says the market continues to absorb greater numbers of low-spec, high-mileage trucks, which negatively affects the above averages. Trucks with mileage lower than aver are performing better, the company says, particularly if the mileage is below 300,000.
Daycabs are doing better than aerodynamic sleepers, J.D. Power says, bringing equal or better money after 3-4 years. Daycabs average 3.1% depreciation to date for 2023. As with sleepers, there are more lower-spec trucks in the market.
J.D. Power called September's sales per rooftop disappointing. The 2.4 trucks-per-rooftop figure is 0.6 fewer than in August and the lowest result in seven months. October is typically stronger than September, but the company says buyers still have to deal with negative equity, high interest rates and a tougher credit market.
The company is forecasting depreciation to relax some as pricing continues to drop toward pre-pandemic lows. "We're looking at the second quarter of 2024 before depreciation returns to a historically typical level," the report says.